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Books : Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Books and Publications Average Rating: out of 5 stars

  
: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
See Larger Image 		Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
by: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Binding: Paperback
EAN: 9780141031484
Format: Import
ISBN: 0141031484
Label: Penguin Books Ltd
Manufacturer: Penguin Books Ltd
Number Of Pages: 368
Publication Date: May 03, 2007
Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
Sales Rank: 201428
Studio: Penguin Books Ltd



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Customer Reviews
Average Rating: out of 5 stars

Rating: 3 out of 5 stars - Amusing but Random Mutterings
Here is the trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb's market philosphy: because humans aren't engineered to think abstractly they discount the role of randomness in their lives, and thus the probability of an unlikely event (what he calls a "black swan") is greatly underpriced by the market. That's why Mr. Taleb is betting hard that a "black swan" will occur, and his first book "Fooled by Randomness" draws on personal anecdotes, finance, mathematics, Greek poetry, psychology, and Yogi Berra to explain and to justify his career choice.

The book is divided into three parts. The first is about how society discounts randomness, the second about how society explains away randomness, and the last part is about how to deal with randomness: when luck turns against you, Mr. Taleb advises, "behave with dignity" like a stoic or a Victorian gentleman.

But the structure doesn't really contain Mr. Taleb, and he ... Read More


Rating: 5 out of 5 stars - Is randomness random?
I would suggest that this book is NOT for someone who has a clear view of where they are going in life, and how they will get there. For in both the large and small events in life, there are unpredictable events. Nassim Taleb talks about how we handle those events, and more importantly, how we can use them in our favour. If you are one I recommend not to start the book, the reading may change your outlook. Permanently.

Taleb is a market trader, with experience of having survived several severe financial storms - `difficult trading conditions'. The book is peopled with real and composite characters from his trading life. Most are no longer working in the market, a result of having `blown up'. The essence of the volume is in the title, describing situations where an apparent underlying order was merely randomness with a semblance of tidiness.

The book ties several seemingly disparate subjects ... Read More


Rating: 5 out of 5 stars - Fooled by Probabilities
The ideas in this book have created more controversy than they deserve, and it might have something to do with the title of the book. Given the number of people who equate "random" with "equiprobable", "Fooled by Probabilities" would have been a more appropriate title for the book, though not as provocative as "Fooled by Randomness". There is a finite chance that there is a black cat in every dark room, but when you switch the light on, there is no black cat in the room. Both are correct statements - mathematically and practically. This book must be read in the same light.

It seems to me that the transition from an average to good investor (probabilistically speaking) happens as soon as you internalize the concept of expected values and invest by it. My favorite story from the book is where Taleb is asked which way the market is expected to go next week, and he says slightly up with a high probability (70%). ... Read More



 

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